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2023: Poll shows Peter Obi leads Tinubu, Atiku, Kwankwaso

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If Nigeria’s presidential election was held today, Peter Obi of the Labour Party would win, according to an opinion poll conducted by NOI Polls.

The poll, commissioned by ANAP Foundation was conducted this month and suggests a three-horse presidential race between Mr Obi, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) came fourth in the poll and was described as a ‘dark horse’.

“The results showed a significant lead for Mr Peter Obi with 21% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% each proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who are both tied in second place. Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 3% of voters proposing to vote for him,” a statement by ANAP foundation announcing the result of the poll shows.

“When asked if respondents were aware of the various candidates vying for the Presidency, data gathered showed that 99% of the respondents were aware of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. 98% were aware of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. 95% were aware of  Mr. Peter Obi of LP  and 74% were aware of Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP. All other candidates scored below 55% in terms of name recognition.

“Furthermore, the data summarizes top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, these include: – The need to tackle insecurity (45%), the Economy (20%), Education (9%), Unemployment (7%) and Poverty alleviation (4%).

“46% of the respondents would love to see their preferred Presidential candidates participate in a televised interview and/or debate, with the interview/debates spanning across topics like their party manifestos, issues of Security, Economy, Education, Job Creation, Healthcare and Agriculture amongst others.

“It is worthy of note that 69% of those aged 18-25, 76% of those aged 26-35, 77% of those aged 36-45, 87% of those aged 46-60 and 89% of those aged 61+ responded saying that they would definitely vote in the coming elections. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 46-60 and 61+ years. On average, the Poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next presidential election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the February 2023 elections. Furthermore, Mr. Peter Obi led the pack in virtually all the age categories i.e. his leadership was not confined to the youths only.

“While these Poll results show some significant trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters, as it appears they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.

“In summary, our September 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner, as the undecided voters are large enough to turn the tables. However, ANAP Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the 4 leading candidates only.”

Nigeria will hold her presidential elections in February 2023 with campaigns set to start at the end of September.

About Charles Igbinidu

Charles Igbinidu is a Public Relations practitioner in Lagos, Nigeria

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